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PUBLICATIONS > Working Papers > California Welfare Recipients and Spells on Aid - Survival Analysis Using Data from the California Work Pays Demonstration Project

California Welfare Recipients and Spells on Aid - Survival Analysis Using Data from the California Work Pays Demonstration Project
Summary
In this working paper, the author constructs a research dataset from administrative data. She uses data collected as part of the California Work Pays Demonstration Project from the Medi-Cal Eligibility Data System. The goal is to examine differences in spells on aid. However, the data - collected for the purpose of administering Medi-Cal payments - makes it difficult to define a household and an end of a spell.

The author identifies two cohorts and examines their differences: one cohort is a sample of cases who are New in 1988, i.e. receiving aid for the first time; and one cohort is a cross section of any case in 1988.

The author uses Kaplan Meier survival estimation to show differences in aid receipt. She shows that whites are more likely to get off assistance than non-whites; that new cases are more likely to get off aid than a case in a Cross Section. The analysis shows interesting results. The cross section of cases indicates a greater heterogeneity than previously reported. Cross section cases with young household heads get off quickly (under 20 months). Further if they do not, their probability of getting off (in the data time frame) drops to almost zero. The author shows that cases with younger household heads experience more administrative churning (i.e. going off aid for less than 3 months and then returning) than cases with older household heads.


Publication file

/pubs/WP01.pdf

related projects

California Work Pays Demonstration Project

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